Journal Articles
Castro, V and Martins, R (2024)
Lockdowns, vaccines and the economy: how economic perceptions were shaped during the COVID-19 pandemic,
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, ISSN: 0036-9292.
Nguyen, TC,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2024)
Delving into the effects of financial crises on human development,
Journal of Human Capital, ISSN: 1932-8575. DOI:
10.1086/730270.
Nguyen, TC,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2024)
Social protection spending and financial crises,
Finance Research Letters, 59, ISSN: 1544-6123. DOI:
10.1016/j.frl.2023.104753.
Nguyen, TC,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2023)
The impact of financial crises on social spending: Delving into the effects in developed and developing countries,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.2901.
Alhalabi, T,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2023)
Bank dividend payout policy and debt seniority: Evidence from US Banks,
Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments, 32(5), pp.285-340, ISSN: 0963-8008. DOI:
10.1111/fmii.12183.
Castro, V, Cerqueira, P, Martins, R (2023)
Is there a pervasive world real credit cycle?,
Open Economies Review, 35(1), pp.99-119, ISSN: 0923-7992. DOI:
10.1007/s11079-023-09719-4.
Castro, V and Rocha, F (2022) The Determinants of the Duration of Participatory Budgeting Programmes in Brazilian Municipalities.
Castro, V and Fisera, B (2022) Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ’Too Much Finance’.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, R (2022)
A quest between fiscal and market discipline,
Economic Modelling, 119, 106119, ISSN: 0264-9993. DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106119.
Koutsoumanis, G and
Castro, V (2022)
The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation,
Empirical Economics, 64(4), pp.1667-1698, ISSN: 0377-7332. DOI:
10.1007/s00181-022-02299-1.
Nguyen, T,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2022)
Political economy of financial crisis duration,
Public Choice, 192(3-4), pp.309-330, ISSN: 0048-5829. DOI:
10.1007/s11127-022-00986-2.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, R (2022)
On the international co-movement of natural interest rates,
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 80(2022), 101610, ISSN: 1042-4431. DOI:
10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101610.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, R (2022)
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?,
Empirical Economics, 64(2), pp.539-565, ISSN: 0377-7332. DOI:
10.1007/s00181-022-02265-x.
Nguyen, TC, Castro, V, Wood, J (Accepted for publication) A new comprehensive database of financial crises: Identification, frequency, and duration, Economic Modelling, pp.105770-105770, ISSN: 0264-9993. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105770.
Oliveira, JS, Ifie, K, Sykora, M, Tsougkou, E,
Castro, V, Elayan, S (2021)
The effect of emotional positivity of brand-generated social media messages on consumer attention and information sharing,
Journal of Business Research, 140, pp.49-61, ISSN: 0148-2963. DOI:
10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.11.063.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2021)
Economic liberalization, political regimes and ideology,
Kyklos, 74(4), pp.463-487, ISSN: 0023-5962. DOI:
10.1111/kykl.12281.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2021)
On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases,
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 182, pp.512-526, ISSN: 0167-2681. DOI:
10.1016/j.jebo.2019.01.016.
Alhalabi, T,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2021)
The relationship between excessive lending, risk premium and risk-taking: evidence from European banks,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, 28(1), pp.448-471, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.2430.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2020)
Why are credit booms sometimes sweet and sometimes sour?,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.1950.
Nguyen, T,
Castro, V, Wood, J (2020)
Political environment and financial crises,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, 27(1), pp.417-438, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.2160.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2020)
What drives the duration of credit booms?,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), pp.1531-1549, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.1862.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2020)
Government ideology and economic freedom,
Journal of Comparative Economics, 49(1), pp.73-91, ISSN: 0147-5967. DOI:
10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.007.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Hammoudeh, S, Sousa, R (2020)
Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: on the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases,
Energy Economics, 90, 104862, ISSN: 0140-9883. DOI:
10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104862.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2020)
The collapse of credit booms: A competing risks analysis,
Journal of Economic Studies, 47(6), pp.1437-1465, ISSN: 0144-3585. DOI:
10.1108/JES-04-2019-0196.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2019)
Riding the wave of credit: Are longer expansions really a bad omen?,
Open Economies Review, 31, ISSN: 0923-7992. DOI:
10.1007/s11079-019-09570-6.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, R (2019)
A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations,
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 63, 101148, ISSN: 1042-4431. DOI:
10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101148.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jawadi, F, Sousa, R (2019)
How does monetary policy respond to the dynamics of the shadow banking sector?,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, 25(2), pp.228-247, ISSN: 1076-9307. DOI:
10.1002/ijfe.1748.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Dufrénot, G, Jawadi, F, Sousa, R (2019)
Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the U.S,
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 24(4), 20180088, ISSN: 1558-3708. DOI:
10.1515/snde-2018-0088.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2019)
Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms,
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(5), pp.1144-1178, ISSN: 0305-9049. DOI:
10.1111/obes.12290.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2019)
The housing cycle: what role for mortgage market development and housing finance?,
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 61(4), pp.607-670, ISSN: 0895-5638. DOI:
10.1007/s11146-019-09705-z.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2019)
Budgets, expenditure composition and political manipulation,
International Review of Applied Economics, 33(2), pp.172-187, ISSN: 0269-2171. DOI:
10.1080/02692171.2017.1379474.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, R (2019) The Benevolence of Time, Sound Macroeconomic Environment and Governance Quality on the Duration of Sovereign Ratings Phases,
European Stability Mechanism Working Paper, (34).
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2018)
The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets,
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(8), pp.1969-1994, ISSN: 0022-2879. DOI:
10.1111/jmcb.12474.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2018)
Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures,
European Journal of Political Economy, 55, pp.44-64, ISSN: 0176-2680. DOI:
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.11.003.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2018)
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, and the HOUSING MARKET,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(7), pp.1769-1789, ISSN: 1365-1005. DOI:
10.1017/S1365100516000869.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2018)
Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle,
Applied Economics Letters, 25(10), pp.724-729, ISSN: 1350-4851. DOI:
10.1080/13504851.2017.1361001.
Aidt, TS,
Castro, V, Martins, R (2018)
Shades of red and blue: government ideology and sustainable development,
Public Choice, 175(3-4), pp.303-323, ISSN: 0048-5829. DOI:
10.1007/s11127-018-0536-2.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2018)
The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Human Development,
Journal of International Development, 30(3), pp.399-429, ISSN: 0954-1748. DOI:
10.1002/jid.3309.
Castro, V (2018)
Functional components of public expenditure, fiscal consolidations, and economic activity,
Economics and Politics, 30(1), pp.124-150, ISSN: 0954-1985. DOI:
10.1111/ecpo.12104.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2018)
The Electoral Dynamics of Human Development,
Journal of Development Studies, 54(1), pp.191-211, ISSN: 0022-0388. DOI:
10.1080/00220388.2017.1288221.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2018)
FINANCIAL MARKETS' SHUTDOWN AND REACCESS,
Economic Inquiry, 56(1), pp.562-571, ISSN: 0095-2583. DOI:
10.1111/ecin.12518.
Castro, V (2017)
Pure, White and Deadly… Expensive: A Bitter Sweetness in Health Care Expenditure,
Health Economics (United Kingdom), 26(12), pp.1644-1666, ISSN: 1057-9230. DOI:
10.1002/hec.3462.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2017)
Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability,
International Tax and Public Finance, 24(3), pp.484-511, ISSN: 0927-5940. DOI:
10.1007/s10797-016-9428-x.
Castro, V (2017)
The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures,
Economic Modelling, 60, pp.138-150, ISSN: 0264-9993. DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.027.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Hammoudeh, S, Sousa, RM (2017)
Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle,
Energy Economics, 61, pp.209-220, ISSN: 0140-9883. DOI:
10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.004.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2016)
Financial stress and sovereign debt composition,
Applied Economics Letters, 23(9), pp.678-683, ISSN: 1350-4851. DOI:
10.1080/13504851.2015.1100241.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2016)
Are there political cycles hidden inside government expenditures?,
Applied Economics Letters, 23(1), pp.34-37, ISSN: 1350-4851. DOI:
10.1080/13504851.2015.1047084.
Castro, V (2015)
The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence,
Empirical Economics, 49(1), pp.325-342, ISSN: 0377-7332. DOI:
10.1007/s00181-014-0860-4.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2015)
Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms,
Applied Economics, 47(34-35), pp.3740-3755, ISSN: 0003-6846. DOI:
10.1080/00036846.2015.1021457.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2015)
Do debt crises boost financial reforms?,
Applied Economics Letters, 22(5), pp.356-360, ISSN: 1350-4851. DOI:
10.1080/13504851.2014.943878.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2015)
Booms, busts, and normal times in the housing market,
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 33(1), pp.25-45, ISSN: 0735-0015. DOI:
10.1080/07350015.2014.918545.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2015)
Is fiscal fatigue a threat to consolidation programmes?,
Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 33(4), pp.765-779, ISSN: 0263-774X. DOI:
10.1177/0263774X15597391.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Tovar Jalles, J, Sousa, RM (2014)
Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment,
Economics Letters, 124(2), pp.231-235, ISSN: 0165-1765. DOI:
10.1016/j.econlet.2014.05.029.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Jalles, JT, Sousa, RM (2014)
What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?,
European Journal of Political Economy, 37, pp.129-145, ISSN: 0176-2680. DOI:
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.10.007.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2013)
What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?,
Journal of International Money and Finance, 37, pp.113-134, ISSN: 0261-5606. DOI:
10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.05.012.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2013)
Running for office again: evidence from Portuguese municipal elections,
Public Choice, 156(3-4), pp.677-702, ISSN: 0048-5829. DOI:
10.1007/s11127-012-9922-3.
Castro, V and Martins, R (2013)
Is there duration dependence in Portuguese local governments' tenure?,
European Journal of Political Economy, 31, pp.26-39, ISSN: 0176-2680. DOI:
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2013.03.004.
Castro, VMQ (2013) The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence,
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 4(1), pp.1-23.
Castro, V (2013)
The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?,
Empirical Economics, 44(2), pp.511-544, ISSN: 0377-7332. DOI:
10.1007/s00181-011-0544-2.
Castro, V (2013)
Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI,
Economic Modelling, 31, pp.672-683, ISSN: 0264-9993. DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.027.
Agnello, L,
Castro, V, Sousa, RM (2012)
How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(3), pp.874-890, ISSN: 0164-0704. DOI:
10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.04.001.
Castro, V and Sousa, RM (2012)
How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?,
Economic Modelling, 29(3), pp.641-653, ISSN: 0264-9993. DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2012.01.006.
Castro, V (2011)
Can central banks’ monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?,
Journal of Financial Stability, 7(4), pp.228-246, ISSN: 1572-3089. DOI:
10.1016/j.jfs.2010.06.002.
Castro, V (2011)
The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(2), pp.313-326, ISSN: 0164-0704. DOI:
10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.09.003.
Castro, V (2010)
The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence,
Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1), pp.347-365, ISSN: 0164-0704. DOI:
10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.06.006.
Soukiazis, E and
Castro, V (2005)
How the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact affected real convergence in the European Union,
Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(3), pp.385-399, ISSN: 0161-8938. DOI:
10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.01.002.
Castro, V and Veiga, FJ (2004)
Political business cycles and inflation stabilization,
Economics Letters, 83(1), pp.1-6, ISSN: 0165-1765. DOI:
10.1016/j.econlet.2003.07.016.
